EDITORIAL BY GRAYDON FOX

Overview:

On Saturday, September 29^th, the (3-1) Oregon Ducks will be on the road to take on the (3-0) California Golden Bears.

The Crowd:

The Crowd projects a final score of Oregon 35.2 – California 24.3 with an over/under of 59.5.

Lou Holtz and Mark May:

Lou is predicting a final score of Oregon 34 – California 21.

Mark is predicting a final score of Oregon 44 – California 31.

2018-19 Statistics (130 total teams):

Passing offense: Oregon 303.3 YPG > California 202.3 YPG

Rushing offense: Oregon 205.0 YPG > California 180.0 YPG

Scoring offense: Oregon 46.5 PPG > California 30.0 PPG

Scoring defense: California 19.3 PPG > Oregon 24.5 PPG

Passing defense: California 170.7 YPG > Oregon 251.3 YPG

Rushing defense: Oregon 75.5 YPG > California 131.7 YPG

Turnover Margin Per Game: California +1.5 > Oregon -0.7

Summary:

Oregon is (3-1) to start the season with wins over Bowling Green, Portland State and San Jose State.  The Ducks came oh so close last week in a 38-31 overtime loss to the #7 ranked Stanford Cardinal.  The Ducks rank 51^st in points per game (34.3) and 66^th in scoring defense (24.5 PPG).  Quarterback Justin Herbert is generating buzz in NFL circles and could be a top ten pick in next April’s Draft.  Herbert has completed 63% of his passes for 1,186 yards with 13 touchdowns to 5 interceptions.  CJ Verdell and Tony Brooks-James have combined to rush for over 500 yards and 5 touchdowns.  Dillon Mitchell leads the team with 20 receptions for 337 yards.  Defensively, Oregon’s secondary has been consistently torched but they rank 4^th in the nation at stopping the run (75.5 YPG).

California is (3-0) with wins over North Carolina, BYU, and Idaho State.  The Golden Bears rank 68^th in points per game (30.0) and 34^th in scoring defense (19.3 PPG).  Quarterback Chase Garbers has completed 68% of his passes for 449 yards with 6 touchdowns to 2 interceptions.  California features three running backs with over 100 yards for the season but as a team they are only averaging 4.2 yards per carry.  This is a down year for California in terms of a prolific offense and explosive playmakers.  The Golden Bears have been stout on defense both against the run and the pass.  California is undefeated largely due to their turnover margin (+1.5) which ranks 11^th out of 130 teams.

Bottom Line:

Chase Garbers is only averaging 6.8 yards per completion and will be forced to make plays down the field when Oregon stuffs the run.  Justin Herbert will show off his NFL ability and is due for a breakout performance.  California’s offense is simply not built to win a shootout so I like Oregon by double digits.

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