Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers: Game of the Day – What is “The Crowd” Saying?
By Anthony Lage and Chris Higginson
May 5, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors guard Kyle Lowry (7) gestures as he dribbles the ball up court against Miami Heat in game two of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Air Canada Centre. The Raptors won 96-92. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Anthony’s Take:
Last night we had GSW and gave the points based on TCL data – wrong. OKC benefited from a dominant second half of rebounding and taking care of the ball + GSW shot the ball horribly. Is OKC a different team from the regular season? It sure looks like it. OKC is coalescing at just the right time. This is going to be an awesome series.
Tonight, “The Crowd” suggests taking TOR and the points. The spread is now -11 CLE and several models including TCL think the game is priced appropriately.
Bottom Line: For tonight – take TOR and the points – overall pick is with relatively low confidence.
Caveats:
- CLE is (8-0) so far in the 2016 Playoffs
- Similar to OKC CLE is playing possessed and like a different team
Good Luck and let us know what you think in the comment section below!
Chris’ Analysis:
- Las Vegas: Cleveland -11 ( moved overnight from -10.5 )
- My pick based on the data: Cleveland by less than 10.5.
- My pick based on my gut: Cleveland by more than 10.5.
The Crowd’s Line
- Equal weighting [ take Toronto and the points, barely ]
- Spread Line: Cavs (-10.3)
- Standard deviation of spread line: 6.0 ( low confidence given how close spread is to Las Vegas line )
- Expected value of $1 bet is $.006 ( low )
Hot Hand
- Experts on Cavs and Toronto ( top 10% spread pickers over last three games for the two teams )
- Spread Line: Warriors -9.6
- Standard deviation of spread line: 4.3 ( low to medium )
- Expected value of $1 bet: $0.09 ( medium )
Contest Leaders: It’s the first game in the contest, so no leaders.
Around the web
- Sportsline: Says to sit on sidelines and not bet the spread.
- “There is no value on Cleveland at this price…” from ZacK Cimini.
- The SportsLine projection model has Cleveland winning by 11..exactly the current Las Vegas spread.
- The SportsLine public is 64% on taking Toronto and the points.
- OKC @ Golden State Recap [we chose loser to take GS to beat the spread ]:
- Las Vegas: GS -7.5
- Final: GS + 6.0
- Number Fire, with GS -4 was the best advice.
Was there value on the money line with nearly 4-1 against the Thunder?
