The Crowd’s Line Dives into Politics!
Forecasting the next President of the United States
Jul 21, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump during rehearsal on Thursday during the 2016 Republican National Convention at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jack Gruber-USA TODAY NETWORK
The Crowd’s Line is now helping forecast the outcome of political elections!
If you live in Kentucky or just visit often, head to www.redoaklex.com and predict who will win in three different races: for US President and Kentucky representatives for the Senate and House. If you guess correctly you will be entered into a drawing to win a $25 Malone’s gift card once the polls close.
Red Oak Group is asking the question, “Who is going to win Kentucky?” for US President.
As of August 5th, 35.1% think Hillary will take Kentucky and 60.1% think Donald will maintain his lead.
A recent poll in Kentucky that asked the question, “Who will you vote for?” resulted in 36% for Clinton, 49% for Trump and 15% undecided. This is significantly different than the feedback that Red Oak Group is getting from people playing their contest. Kentuckians seem to be telling The Crowd’s Line that even though some of their neighbors say they are undecided, their votes will go Republican on the day the polls open up.
We can’t look into the future and say definitively that The Crowd’s Line is correct. We can, however, compare these numbers to the 2012 election as shown below
In 2012, the 8% undecided in the Sept 13 poll mostly ended up going to Romney, the republican. There was also a slight decrease in the actual Obama percentage vote relative to the Sept 13 poll. The Crowds Line is anticipating the same pattern to happen again, which seems plausible.
We will keep you updated on this and other races as we get closer to November!
