“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the results of a hundred battles.” -Sun Tzu

Most casual gamblers believe the enemy is the bookmaker.

It’s true, most bookmakers are not there to make your life any easier. In other words, bookmakers are not looking to help you win bets and conversely have them lose bets. That said, without bookmakers you would not be able to express your sports betting opinions in an efficient way.

The true enemy is RANDOMNESS.

Randomness in sports and randomness in sports betting create the distortions and illusions which give bettors a sense of control and a sense of being “out of control” – when neither are true.

Examples of randomness in football are deflected passes going to house for a pick six, double doink missed field goals, punts checking up at the 1 yard line instead of going into the endzone for a touchback, unforced turnovers by teams which lack discipline, mental miscues at peak moments in the game…this is just to name a few.

The Crowd’s Line (“TCL”) – TCL crowdsourced and expert data along with this blog will explore the relationship between randomness and winning and will help you be in control of your bankroll and wagers (both of which should be tiny). The result is winning more and as a byproduct having a blast with sports betting.

I want to reiterate, crowdsourced data and expert data which is aggregated is the KEY – it is your source of an EDGE – your EDGE. Without this information and without the approach I am going to layout – based on 15 years staring at a Bloomberg Terminal – you are wandering around in the dark – you are using the same tired datasets as everyone else and using the same tired approach that has not changed in 50 years. It’s time for something new and easy which is time tested in capital markets

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(As an aside, sports betting is for FUN. Sports betting is not a reliable money making endeavor. There are much better and more reliable ways of making money in “markets” – The “Sports Betting Market” is NOT one of them. If you think you are going to out fox and beat a game in which you are PAYING 5% to 25%+ to play – you need to find something else to do with your time.)