Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Golden State Warriors: Game Two – What is “The Crowd” Saying?
By Anthony Lage and Chris Higginson
May 16, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) congratulates forward Kevin Durant (35) for being fouled during the second quarter in game one of the Western conference finals of the NBA Playoffs against the Golden State Warriors at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Anthony’s take:
Bottom Line: I think OKC is playing like a different team and I cannot come up with a reason why not to take the points and OKC.
Potential Caveats:
- GSW shot poorly – unlikely to happen two games in a row
- OKC reverts to the mean and start turning the ball over
Chris’ take:
Oklahoma (1) @ Golden State (0), Game 2
Las Vegas: Golden State -8.5
My pick: take Oklahoma and the points.
Reasons Why?
- Crowd-sourcing: TCL, Covers, OddsShark all agree.
- Computer simulation: SportsLine, ESPN, OddsShark all agree.
- Offshore money: Vegas Insider shows it is flowing to Golden State
Reason to doubt:
- Journalists: SportsLine and Covers think Golden State go big.
- The Crowd’s Line
- Equal weighting [ take Oklahoma and the points ]
- spread line: Golden State -5.7
- standard deviation of spread line: 7.3 ( medium confidence given how far spread is from Las Vegas line )
- expected value of $1 bet is $.26 ( medium )
Hot Hand [take Oklahoma and the points ]
- Experts on Oklahoma and Golden State ( top 10% spread pickers over last three games for the two teams )
- spread line: Golden State -2.7
- standard deviation of spread line: 7.9 ( high confidence given spread difference from Las Vegas )
- expected value of $1 bet: $0.53 ( high )
Contest Leaders [ take Oklahoma and the points ]
- Leaders of The Crowd’s Line Oklahoma vs Golden State series contest.
- spread line: Golden State -4.5
- standard deviation of spread line: 5.0 ( high confidence given the spread difference from Las Vegas)
- expected value of $1 bet: $.66 ( high )
