Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Golden State Warriors: Game Four – What is “The Crowd” Saying?
By Anthony Lage and Chris Higginson
May 22, 2016; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green (23) shoots as Oklahoma City Thunder forward Serge Ibaka (9) defends during the third quarter in game three of the Western conference finals of the NBA Playoffs at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
Anthony:
Steve Kerr said (paraphrasing) after Game 3 “We shot the ball too quickly and we let them get a lot of points in transitions.”
I would look for GSW to aggressively try to 1.) Slow Westbrook down and 2.) Make the extra pass on offense.
If they are able to do so we are looking at the “under” as a likely outcome
Chris:
Golden State (1) @ Oklahoma City (2), Game 4
Las Vegas: GS -2.5 spread
- over-under 222
- OKC moneyline -125
- GS moneyline +105
Tonight’s simple pick: Take the under. Take OKC and the points.
Yesterday’s recap:
For the second night in a row our Crowd and the computer models of SportsLine and ESPN correctly picked the home team to beat the spread. The wager money continued to flow to LeBron James and his healthy all-star supporting cast. How about them moccasins now?
Tonight:
TCL has been successful in the last two games when our crowd and the SportsLine and ESPN models line up. This time the models pick OKC and the Crowd has GS. We are taking GS and giving the points. Our Crowd gives OKC the edge if it turns into a run-and-gun high scoring game.
Spread bet signals from The Crowd’s Line and around the net.
| source | crowd | Hot hand | Contest lead | Computer model | Crowd by Wager | Analyst |
| The Crowd’s Line | OKC | OKC | OKC | |||
| SportsLine | OKC | GS | OKC | |||
| ESPN | GS, OKC | GS | ||||
| Covers | GS | GS | GS | |||
| Vegas Insider | GS | |||||
| OddsShark | GS | OKC | GS | |||
| YahooSports | OKC to win |
The Crowd’s Line: Equal weighting [ take the under, take OKC and take the points ]
- spread line: OKC +2.4
- standard deviation of spread line: 8.6
- expected value of $1 bet on OKC is $.09
Hot Hand: [take the under, no opinion on spread = +2.5]
- spread line: OKC +2.5
- standard deviation of spread line: 8.9
- expected value of $1 bet: -$0.14 ( awful bet, but follows the Hot Hand line )
Contest Leaders: [take the under, take OKC and take the points]
- Leaders of The Crowd’s Line OKC vs GS series contest.
- spread line: OKC +1.8
- standard deviation of spread line: 5.5
- expected value of $1 bet: $.06
