Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors: Game Seven – What is “The Crowd” Saying?
May 26, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson (11) reacts after a foul is called against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the second quarter in game five of the Western conference finals of the NBA Playoffs at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Golden State Warriors, 9:00 pm ET on TNT
Series is tied at 3-3
This one is going to hurt.
The Crowd thinks that GS will close out the series in a close game. They also think there is value on the under wager again tonight. The spread money is on GS and the total money is on the over. Get ready for what could be an epic battle.
The offshore money seems to be telling us that Golden State is going to blowout Oklahoma City and put up a splash-brothers- worthy amount of points. The Crowd chooses the under, perhaps thinking that there are going to be some serious forearms to the chest and big fouls on Klay and Steph before OKC is willing to give up what could be the last realistic chance of a championship during what will be known as the Westbrook Durant era.
There is every reason to believe that Klay Thompson’s magical fourth quarter might not have saved the Warriors if it wasn’t for a few serious mistakes from the Thunder’s superstars, as Stephan A Smith points out here: http://espn.go.com/video/clipid=15808953&ex_cid=espnapi_internal.
Good luck tonight!
Spread, Total and Moneyline Crowd sentiment
Bookmaker prices versus Crowd sentiment.
| bookmakers ( as of 11:00am ET ) | What the Crowd is saying? | |||
| OKC | GS | |||
| Spread | +7.5 | -7.5 | OKC +7.5 | weak (53.1%) |
| Moneyline | +270 | -330 | – | no value ($0.00/$1 ) |
| Total | 218.0 | under | strong ( 71.8% ) | |
Crowd sentiment going into tonight’s game across all wagers.
| under 218.0 points | over 218.0 points | Total | |
| OKC wins | 20.4% | 3.6% | 23.9% |
| GS wins by less than 7.5 points | 24.3% | 4.9% | 29.1% |
| GS wins by more than 7.5 points | 27.2% | 16.8% | 44.0% |
| total | 71.8% | 25.2% | 97.1% |
The Crowd’s Line: Equal weighting [ take the under, take OKC +7.5 ]
- spread line: GS -5.8
- total: 211.58
- standard deviation of spread line: 7.8
- expected value of $1 bet on OKC+7.5 spread is $0.03
Hot Hand [take to under, take OKC +7.5]
- Experts on OKC and GS ( top 10% spread pickers over last three games for the two teams )
- spread line: GS -6.65
- total: 207.45
- standard deviation of spread line: 5.1
- expected value of $1 bet on OKC +7.5 is +$0.05
Contest Leaders [ take the under, take OKC +7.5]
- Leaders of The Crowd’s Line OKC vs GS series contest.
- spread line: GS -6.0
- total: 208
- standard deviation of spread line: 4.8
- expected value of $1 bet on OKC +7.5 is $0.35
Comparison of the Crowd to other forecasts:
Spread wager forecasts
| source | crowd | hot hand | contest lead | computer model | crowd by wager | analyst |
| The Crowd’s Line | OKC +7.5 | OKC +7.5 | OKC +7.5 | |||
| SportsLine | OKC +7.5 | GS -7.5 | OKC +7.5 | |||
| ESPN | OKC+7.5, GS -7.5 | GS -7.5 | ||||
| Covers | OKC +7.5 | GS -7.5 | GS -7.5 | |||
| Vegas Insider | GS -7.5 | |||||
| OddsShark | OKC +7.5 | GS -7.5 | ||||
| YahooSports | OKC to win |
Total points wager forecasts
| source | crowd | hot hand | contest lead | computer model | crowd by wager | analyst |
| The Crowd’s Line | under 218.0 | Under 218.0 | Under 218.0 | |||
| SportsLine | Over 218.0 | Over 218.0 | ||||
| ESPN | Under 218.0 | |||||
| Covers | Over 218.0 | Over 218.0 | Under 218.0 | |||
| Vegas Insider | Over 218.0 | Over 218.0 | ||||
| OddsShark | Over 218.0 | Over 218.0 | ||||
| YahooSports | OKC to win |
Moneyline wager forecasts
| source | crowd | hot hand | contest lead | computer model | crowd by wager | analyst |
| The Crowd’s Line | No value | |||||
| SportsLine | GS -330 | |||||
| ESPN | ||||||
| Covers | ||||||
| Vegas Insider | OKC +270 | |||||
| OddsShark | ||||||
| YahooSports | No value in moneyline |
