Mandatory Credit: USA TODAY Sports

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Overview:

On Sunday, January 21^st, the Jacksonville Jaguars will be on the road to take on the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game.

The Crowd:

“The Crowd” is projecting a final score of Patriots 27.0 – Jaguars 25.4 with an over/under of 52.4.

2017-18 Statistics (32 total teams):

Yards per game: Patriots 394.2 (1^st) > Jaguars 365.9 (6^th)

Points per game: Patriots 28.6 (2^nd) > Jaguars 26.1 (5^th)

Turnover margin: Jaguars +10 > Patriots +6

Fewest yards allowed per game: Jaguars 286.1 (2^nd) > Patriots 366.0 (29^th)

Fewest Points allowed per game:  Jaguars 16.8 (2^nd) > Patriots 18.5 (5^th)

Top 5 winners

1. Mitchell Wilson (500 PTS)
2. Robert Steven Israel (500 PTS)
3. David Moore (500 PTS)
4. Mike DuPlessis (500 PTS)
5. Michael Kawell (500 PTS)

Summary:

The Patriots advance to the AFC Championship Game after dominating the Tennessee Titans 35-14 at home.  The Patriots outgained the Titans 438-267 in total yardage.  Tom Brady was a very efficient 35-53 for 337 yards and three touchdowns.  The Patriots running game totaled 101 yards and two touchdowns on 27 carries (3.7 average).  Danny Amendola had 11 catches for 112 yards while Rob Gronkowski added 6 catches for 81 yards and a touchdown.  The Patriots defense held Derrick Henry to 28 yards on 12 carries (2.3 average).  The Patriots spied Marcus Mariota the entire game and forced him to beat them through the air.  New England (+162) leads the league in point differential.

Jacksonville pulled off a stunning 45-42 upset over the Steelers in Pittsburgh.  The Steelers outgained the Jaguars 545-378 in total yardage.  Blake Bortles was 14-26 for 214 yards and a touchdown.  Leonard Fournette had a monster game with 25 carries for 109 yards (4.4 average) and three touchdowns.  The Jaguars normally stout defense was torched by Ben Roethlisberger who passed for 469 yards and five touchdowns.  Ultimately, Pittsburgh dug themselves a hole and were doomed by two early turnovers. The Jaguars (+149) rank 3^rd in the NFL in point differential.

Bottom Line:

The Patriots have won nine of their last ten playoff games and haven’t lost a post-season game at home since 2012.  The Jaguars have one of the NFL’s most dominant defenses but have trouble scoring points if they can’t run the football.  Jacksonville thrives on turnovers but Tom Brady rarely ever turns the ball over.  The Jaguars were exposed in the vertical passing game against Pittsburgh, so look for Brady to attack deep off play action.  Blake Bortles wasn’t asked to do much against the Steelers because Leonard Fournette was unstoppable running the football.  If the Patriots can slow down Fournette they should have no problem outscoring an offensively challenged Jacksonville team.

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