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Overview:

On Saturday, November 25^th, the (11-0) Alabama Crimson Tide will be on the road to take on the (9-2) Auburn Tigers.

The Crowd:

“The Crowd” projects a final score of Alabama 31.6 – Auburn 25.7 with an over/under of 57.3.

2017-18 Statistics (130 total teams):

Passing offense: Auburn 231.0 YPG > Alabama 208.9 YPG

Rushing offense: Alabama 270.3 YPG > Auburn 244.0 YPG

Scoring offense: Alabama 41.4 PPG > Auburn 37.6 PPG

Scoring defense: Alabama 10.2 PPG > Auburn 16.6 PPG

Passing defense: Alabama 156.7 YPG > Auburn 184.4 YPG

Rushing defense: Alabama 87.4 YPG > Auburn 118.2 YPG

Turnover Margin Per Game: Alabama +1.1 > Auburn +0.8

Strength of schedule:

Alabama is a perfect (11-0) with wins over Florida State, Fresno State, Colorado State, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi State, and Mercer.  Auburn is (9-2) with wins over Georgia Southern, Mercer, Missouri, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Georgia, and UL Monroe.  They were defeated by Clemson and LSU.

Summary:

Alabama enters as the nation’s number one team and favorite to win the 2017 National Championship.  The Crimson Tide have a perfect 11-0 record and are fresh off shutting out Mercer 56-0 at home.  While it’s hard to take much from such an inferior opponent, Alabama did beat two ranked opponents (Mississippi State and LSU) in the weeks prior.  Alabama outgained Mercer 530-161 in total yardage.  Jalen Hurts was 7-7 for 180 yards and three touchdowns.  The Crimson Tide rushed for 265 yards and two touchdowns on 42 carries (6.3 average).  Calvin Ridley had 3 catches foe 103 yards and a touchdown.  Alabama ranks 15^th in total offense (479.0 YPG) and 7^th in points per game (41.4).  The Crimson Tide rank 1^st in scoring defense (10.2 PPG).

After dispatching #1 Georgia, Auburn hosted UL Monroe and soundly beat them 42-14.  Auburn outgained UL Monroe 552-333 in total yardage.  Jarrett Stidham was 18-24 for 235 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.  Kerryon Johnson had 137 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries.  The Tigers rushed for 317 yards and three touchdowns on 48 carries (6.6 average).  Auburn’s defense was able to force three turnovers.  Auburn ranks 17^th in total offense (476.0 YPG) and 17^th in points per game (37.6).  The Tigers rank 8^th in scoring defense (16.6 PPG).

Bottom Line:

Auburn faces a daunting task having to beat number one Alabama and Georgia again in the SEC championship to reach the college football playoff.  Auburn leans heavily on running the football with their star tailback Kerryon Johnson but he will be up against an Alabama defense that is 2^nd in the nation at stopping the run (87.4 YPG).  The key to this game will be whether Auburn’s defense can stop the run and force Jalen Hurts into third and long situations.  Alabama is much stronger in the trenches and should be able to wear Auburn down.  I expect this to be a close game throughout but Alabama will pull away late.

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