Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors (Game Six): Game of the Day – What is “The Crowd” Saying?
May 23, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) battles for the ball with Toronto Raptors guard Kyle Lowry (7) and forward DeMarre Carroll (5) in game four of the Eastern conference finals of the NBA Playoffs at Air Canada Centre. The Raptors won 105-99. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan try to harness Toronto’s love one more time on the home court. Or at least put up more points than last time.
NBA Eastern Conference Finals
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Toronto Raptors, 8:30pm ET on ESPN
CLE leads the series 3-2
Strongest Forecast => take the over.
Tonight:
The Crowd thinks there is good value on taking the over. In general they think Cleveland will win, but given the strong performance Toronto continually puts in at home it will be tough to win by seven or more points.
The leaders of our Eastern Conference Finals contest actually think Toronto will win. The offshore bookmakers on the other hand are showing wagers flowing to CLE and giving the points.
Good luck tonight!
Bookmaker prices versus Crowd sentiment.
| bookmakers ( as of 11:00am ET ) | What the Crowd is saying? | |||
| CLE | TOR | |||
| Spread | -6.5 | +6.5 | TOR +6.5 | strong (63.5%) |
| Moneyline | -280 | +240 | TOR | strong ($0.13/$1 ) |
| Total | 196.5 | over | strong ( 70.1% ) | |
Breakdown of the Crowd sentiment going into tonight’s game across all wagers.
| under 196.5 points | over 196.5 points | total | |
| TOR wins | 8.9% | 24.4% | 33.2% |
| CLE wins by less than 6.5 points | 9.6% | 20.7% | 30.3% |
| CLE wins by more than 6.5 points | 11.4% | 25.1% | 36.5% |
| total | 29.9% | 70.1% | 100.0% |
The Crowd’s Line: Equal weighting [ take the under, take TOR and the points ]
- spread line: TOR +3.3
- standard deviation of spread line: 8.6
- expected value of $1 bet on TOR +3.3 spread is $0.20
Hot Hand [take CLE and give the points ]
- Experts on TOR and CLE ( top 10% spread pickers over last three games for the two teams )
- spread line: TOR +7.7
- standard deviation of spread line: 11.1
- expected value of $1 bet: $0.05
Contest Leaders [ take TOR and the points. They might even defend home again! ]
- Leaders of The Crowd’s Line TOR vs CLE series contest.
- spread line: TOR -3.1 ( contest leaders think TOR might win )
- standard deviation of spread line: 11.9
- expected value of $1 bet: $0.43
Spread bet signals from The Crowd’s Line and around the net.
| source | crowd | Hot hand | Contest lead | Computer model | Crowd by Wager | Analyst |
| The Crowd’s Line | TOR +6.5 | CLE -6.5 | TOR +6.5 | |||
| SportsLine | TOR +6.5 | TOR +6.5 | CLE -6.5 | CLE -6.5 | ||
| ESPN | TOR, TOR +6.5 | CLE -6.5 | ||||
| Covers | CLE -6.5 | TOR +6.5 | TOR +6.5 | |||
| Vegas Insider | CLE -6.5 | |||||
| OddsShark | CLE -6.5 | CLE -6.5 | CLE -6.5 | |||
| YahooSports | CLE to win |
