Cleveland (2) @ Toronto (1), Game 4

Las Vegas:  Cleveland -6 spread

Tonight’s simple pick: take Toronto and the points.

• Over-under 197
• Cleveland moneyline -250
• Toronto moneyline  200

Yesterday’s recap: 

Our Crowd and the computer models of SportsLine and ESPN correctly picked OKC to beat the spread.  Nobody predicted the blowout.  Is the offshore world enamored with Steph Curry and Golden State and is that why most of the wagers are flowing that direction?

Tonight:

We have been successful the last two times our crowd and the SportsLine and ESPN models line up.  We are again ignoring the offshore money and following our biggest crowd and the models to take Toronto and the points.

The Crowd’s Line

Equal weighting [ take Toronto and the points 

• spread line: Toronto 4.6
• standard deviation of spread line: 8.8
• expected value of $1 bet on TOR is $.16

Hot Hand [ take Toronto and the points ]

• Experts on Toronto and Cleveland ( top 10% spread pickers over last three games for the two teams)
• spread line: Toronto -2.7 ( Toronto to win! )
• standard deviation of spread line:  9.8
• expected value of $1 bet: $0.58

Contest Leaders [ take Toronto and the points ]

• Leaders of The Crowd’s Line Toronto v Cleveland series contest.
• spread line: Toronto 3.7
• standard deviation of spread line: 8.4
• expected value of $1 bet:  $.06

Spread bet signals from The Crowd’s Line and around the net.

source	crowd	Hot hand	Contest lead	Computer model	Crowd by Wager	Analyst
The Crowd’s Line	TOR	TOR	TOR
SportsLine				TOR	CLE	CLE
ESPN				TOR	CLE
Covers	CLE	TOR
Vegas Insider					CLE
OddsShark	CLE			CLE	CLE
YahooSports	GS to win