NBA Finals: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors, 8:00pm ET on ABC

Golden State leads the series 1-0.

Under.  Again.  Really?!!

The Crowd gives us a 45% chance of seeing a close game where the winner is decided by less than 6 points.  Let’s hope that happens – we’ve already had too many games during the playoffs where the losing team has capitulated with more than 10 minutes left to get some rest for the next game.

The Crowd thinks there is a 70% chance that less than 209 points are scored.  Going back to the conference finals, The Crowd is 9-3 on the over/under when consensus is 70% or greater.  We’ve been leaning heavily on the under and it doesn’t look like we are the only ones to notice this.  Public wagers are on the over but the line has been coming in over the last few days, a sure sign that professional gamblers are on the under.

http://www.covers.com/odds/linehistory.aspx?eventId=915362&sport=NBA

Tyronn Lue has asked James to play more up tempo (http://www.sportsline.com/nba/game-forecast/NBA_20160605_CLE@GS/ , http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2016/story/_/id/15936845/lebron-james-cleveland-cavaliers-told-coach-tyronn-lue-play-faster-pace-golden-state-warriors-nba-finals ).  This puts some doubt in our predictions, but our contest leaders, who follow the news more closely than us, are still hard on the under.

Good luck tonight!

Spread, Total and Moneyline Crowd sentiment

Bookmaker prices versus Crowd sentiment.

	bookmakers ( as of 9:00am ET )		What the Crowd is saying?
	CLE	GS
Spread	+6.5	-6.5	CLE +6.5	medium     (55.7%)
Moneyline	+210	-250	–	no value
Total	209.0		Under	strong     ( 70.7% )

Crowd sentiment going into tonight’s game across all wagers.

	under 209.0 points	over 209.0 points	Total
CLE wins	25.1%	7.0%	32.1%
GS wins by less than 6.5 points	18.5%	5.0%	23.5%
GS wins by more than 6.5 points	27.1%	17.2%	44.3%
total	70.7%	29.3%	100.0%

Comparison of the Crowd to other forecasts

 Spread wager forecasts

source	crowd	hot hand	contest lead	computer model	crowd by wager	analyst
The Crowd’s Line	CLE +6.5	GS -6.5	GS -6.5
SportsLine	GS -6.5			GS -6.5	GS -6.5
ESPN				CLE +6.5, CLE +6.5	GS -6.5
Covers	CLE +6.5	GS -6.0				GS -6.5
Vegas Insider					GS -6.5
OddsShark				CLE +6.5	GS -6.5
YahooSports

 Total points wager forecasts

source	crowd	hot hand	contest lead	computer model	crowd by wager	analyst
The Crowd’s Line	under 209.0	under 209.0	under 209.0
SportsLine	–			over 209.0	over 209.0
ESPN				Under 209.0
Covers	under 209.0	under 209				over 209.0
Vegas Insider					over 209.0
OddsShark				Under 209	over 209
YahooSports

 Moneyline wager forecasts

source	crowd	hot hand	contest lead	computer model	crowd by wager	analyst
The Crowd’s Line	No value
SportsLine				GS -250
ESPN
Covers
Vegas Insider					CLE +210
OddsShark
YahooSports	GS

 Forecast Details

The Crowd’s Line: Equal weighting [ take the under, take CLE +6.5 ]

• crowd size:  1,416 predictions
• spread line forecast: GS -4.0
• standard deviation of spread line: 9.7
• total points forecast: 203.9
• expected value of $1 bet on CLE +6.5 spread is $0.057

preferred wager for maximum expected value: Take the under for expected payoff on $1 wager of $0.40 and an estimated Sharpe ratio of 0.44.

preferred combo wager for maximum estimated Sharpe ratio: same as simple, take the under

Hot Hand [take to under, take GS -6.5]

• Experts on CLE and GS ( top 10% spread pickers over last three games for the two teams )
• crowd size:  71 predictions
• spread line forecast: GS -8.4
• standard deviation of spread line: 6.2
• total points forecast: 206.3
• expected value of $1 bet on GS -6.5 is +$0.20

Contest Leaders [take to under, take GS -6.5]

• Leaders in the NBA Finals contest.
• crowd size:  7 predictions
• spread line forecast: GS -8.7
• standard deviation of spread line: 6.8
• total points forecast: 205.0
• expected value of $1 bet on GS -6.5 is +$0.08

SportsLine  [ model: GS-5, over, GS ML, public money: GS -6.5, over, journalist: over ]

• Computer simulation projected final spread: GS -12,  take GS-6.5
• Computer simulation projected final total: 218, or take the over.
• Computer simulation projected moneyline: take GS
• Public Wager Side: 57% take GS -6 , 71% take the over ( reverse line movement on the under from 210.5 to 209 )
• Journalist pick ( Zack Cimini ): Over 207.5, .

Rational: “Cleveland coach Tyronn Lue reportedly told James to pick up the pace and play faster in Game 2, which figures to help the Over. Curry and Thompson cannot play any worse, another factor that bodes well for the Over.”

http://www.sportsline.com/nba/game-forecast/NBA_20160605_CLE@GS/

• SportsLine Crowdsourcing with The Crowd’s Line tool: NOT POSTED

ESPN:  [ both models take CLE+6.5 and under. Crowdsource spread by wager side: GS. ]

• Team Rankings: GS-5.9, total = 208.3:  take CLE+6.5, under.
• Number Fire: GS -5.0, total = 203:  take CLE +6.5 and under.
• Public consensus pick: 53% take GS and lay the points.

Covers:  [ general crowd says GS -6, over.  expert crowd has CLE +6.0, -. ]

• Equal weighting

crowd size: 700

crowd pick: 57% take GS and the points, 56% take the under

• Hot Hand

Crowd size: 22

Crowd pick: 58% take CLE and the points,  take the under.

• Article prediction: GS wins 109 to 101.  Take the over.

Rational: “The Warriors have won six straight games against the Cavaliers dating back to last season’s Finals.”

Vegas Insider:  [ GS -6.5, over, CLE moneyline  ]

• Where is the public offshore money? 76% over, 63% GS-6.5, 71% CLE moneyline

Odds Shark: [ Wagers say GS -65. and over, computer simulation says to take CLE +6.5 and the under. ]

• sports book money consensus: 53% take GS -6.0, 57% take the over 209
• computer simulation: CLE +6.5., take under 209.0

Yahoo Sports:  [ Crowd, 69% think GS will win. ]

• 69% of crowd says GS will win.
• Crowd size: 20,766 picks

How did the Crowd do last time? 

The Crowd heavily favored the under at 208.0 on Game 1 and had a weak preference for CLE +6.5.  Under was correct, CLE +6.5 was off as the GS bench pulled away.