NBA Finals Game 7: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors, 8:00pm ET on ABC

The series is tied 3-3.

The Crowd gives Golden State a slight edge.

 The Crowd predicts a great game with a slight 50.7% to 49.3% edge to Golden State taking home the Larry O’Brien Trophy.  This is implies a better chance for Cleveland than the odds makers are providing with value on the moneyline at +165.

The Crowd also has a slight lean on the under.  There may be a feeling that the NBA wants to ensure that at least Game 7 is not greatly impacted by home court officiating.  The only reasonable way for a referee to implement this idea is to blow the whistle less.  Banging under the boards favors Cleveland and a lower scoring game, especially while Bogut is out and Tristan is peaking.

It’s interesting that Number Fire, Team Rankings and OddsShark simulators all favor Cleveland to beat the spread while SportsLine has Golden State easily winning.  It makes you wonder if the models are fundamentally different or if the head-to-head sliding window of similar games is larger for one simulator relative to the others.

An interesting prop forecast setting up for tonight is the probability of LeBron winning MVP of the series.  The last time a player for the losing team won the award was Jerry West in 1969 even though his team lost to Boston.  Bookmakers favor LeBron with an approximately 65% chance of being crowned.  He received 4/11 votes last year when Cleveland lost.  Our own two person crowd sourced number puts the odds closer to 77%.

Good luck tonight!

Spread, Total and Moneyline Crowd sentiment

Bookmaker prices versus Crowd sentiment.

	bookmakers ( 3:00pm ET )		What the Crowd is saying?
	CLE	GS
spread	+5.0	-5.0	CLE	weak (13.7% )
moneyline	+165	-190	CLE	medium ( 30.6% )
total	208.0		under	weak  ( 14.9% )

Crowd sentiment going into tonight’s game across all wagers.

	under 208.0	over 208.0	total
CLE wins	30.3%	18.9%	49.3%
GS by < 5.0	7.3%	2.9%	10.3%
GS by > 5.0	22.5%	17.9%	40.5%
total	60.2%	39.8%	100.0%

Line comparisons from around the web

 Spread wager forecasts

source	crowd	hot hand	contest lead	computer model	crowd by wager	analyst
The Crowd’s Line	CLE +5.0	CLE +5.0	CLE +5.0
SportsLine	CLE +5.0			GS -5.0	CLE +5.0	CLE +5.0
ESPN				CLE +5.0, –	GS -5.0
Covers	GS -5.0	GS -5.0				CLE +5.0
Vegas Insider					–
OddsShark				CLE +5.0	GS -5.0
YahooSports

 Total points wager forecasts

source	crowd	hot hand	contest lead	computer model	crowd by wager	analyst
The Crowd’s Line	under 208.0	under 208.0	over 208.0
SportsLine	under 208.0			under 208.0	over 208.0
ESPN				under 208.0
Covers	over 208	Under 208				_
Vegas Insider					over 208.0
OddsShark				Under 208	over 208
YahooSports

 Moneyline wager forecasts

source	crowd	hot hand	contest lead	computer model	crowd by wager	analyst
The Crowd’s Line	CLE
SportsLine				GS
ESPN
Covers
Vegas Insider					CLE
OddsShark
YahooSports	GS

The Crowd’s Line: Equal weighting [ take the under, take CLE +5.0 ]

• crowd size:  3,667 predictions (app-only, not counting partners)
• spread line forecast: GS -1.37
• standard deviation of spread line: 10.9
• total points forecast: 205.8
• expected value of $1 bet on CLE +5.0 spread is $0.12
• preferred combo wager for maximum estimated Sharpe ratio:
• 700 CLE on the moneyline
• 1000 on the under

For expected return of .22 on a projected Sharpe ratio of .28.

preferred wager for maximum expected value: Take CLE on the moneyline for expected payoff on $1 wager of $0.25 and an estimated Sharpe ratio of 0.19.

Hot Hand [take to under, take CLE +5.0]

• Experts on CLE and GS ( top 10% spread pickers over last three games for the two teams )
• crowd size:  112 predictions
• spread line forecast: CLE -.88 ( CLE wins! )
• standard deviation of spread line: 9.9
• total points forecast: 205.9
• expected value of $1 bet on CLE +5.0 is +$0.33

Contest Leaders [take the over, take CLE +5.0]

• Leaders in the NBA Finals contest.
• crowd size:  9 predictions
• spread line forecast: GS -3.1
• standard deviation of spread line: 7.9
• total points forecast: 214.4
• expected value of $1 bet on CLE +5.0 is +$0.06

SportsLine  [ model: GS -5, under, GS ML, public money: GS  -5.0, over, journalist: CLE+5.0 ]

• Computer simulation projected final spread: GS -11,  take GS-5.0
• Computer simulation projected final total: 203, or take the under.
• Computer simulation projected moneyline: take GS
• Public Wager Side: 55% take GS -5, 69% take the over.
• Crowd Source ( TCL tool ): CLE +5, under
• Journalist pick ( Zack Cimini ): CLE +5.0 .

Rational: “Without center injured center Andrew Bogut, James, Kyrie Irving and friends have attacked the basket with impunity.

In addition to Bogut, defensive stalwart Andre Iguodala, the MVP of last year’s Finals, is dealing with a back ailment but intends to play in Game 7.”

http://www.sportsline.com/nba/game-forecast/NBA_20160619_CLE@GS/

ESPN:  [ models take CLE +5.0 and under. Crowdsource spread by wager side: GS -5.0. ]

• Team Rankings: GS-3.7, total = 205.1:  take CLE +5.0, under.
• Number Fire: GS +5.0, total = 203.0:  no spread bet, under.
• Public consensus pick: 52% take GS and lay the points.

Covers:  [ general crowd says GS -5, over.  expert crowd has GS +2.0, -. ]

• Equal weighting

crowd size: 800

crowd pick: 55% take GS and give the points, 69% take the over

• Hot Hand

Crowd size: 50

Crowd pick: 57% take GS and give the points, 53% take the under.

• Article prediction: CLE wins 106 to 102.  Do not bet on total.

Vegas Insider:  [ over, CLE moneyline  ]

• Where is the public offshore money? 84% over, split on spread, 60% CLE moneyline

Odds Shark: [ Wagers say GS -5.0 and over, computer simulation says to take CLE +5.0 and the under. ]

• sports book money consensus: 52% take GS -5.0, 54% take the over 208
• computer simulation: CLE +5.0, take over 208.0

Yahoo Sports:  [ Crowd, 56% think GS will win. ]

• 56% of crowd says CLE will win.
• Crowd size: 42,169 picks

How did the Crowd do on Game 6? 

The Crowd had a lean toward the under, but Cleveland stretched it out at the end and blew past the over/under.