Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors: Game One – What is “The Crowd” Saying?
December 18, 2014; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) celebrates against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the second quarter at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Thunder 114-109. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
2016 NBA Finals
Game One: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors, 9:00pm ET on ABC
Cleveland might make a statement.
The Crowd gives Cleveland a 36% chance of stealing the first game on the road. They also think a healthy dose of defense is going by both teams is going to keep the score under 209 points. The offshore spread money is on GS and the total money is on the over.
Both teams are loose and confident. Many people are until the first punch in the face.
This is going to be a great series.
Good luck tonight!
Spread, Total and Moneyline Crowd sentiment
Bookmaker prices versus Crowd sentiment.
| bookmakers ( as of 11:00am ET ) | What the Crowd is saying? | |||
| CLE | GS | |||
| Spread | +6.0 | -6.0 | CLE +6.0 | medium (54.9%) |
| Moneyline | +200 | -240 | CLE +200 | medium ($0.076/$1 ) |
| Total | 209.0 | Under | strong ( 64.6% ) | |
Crowd sentiment going into tonight’s game across all wagers.
| under 209.0 points | over 209.0 points | Total | |
| CLE wins | 26.7% | 9.2% | 35.9% |
| GS wins by less than 6.0 points | 13.0% | 6.1% | 19.1% |
| GS wins by more than 6.0 points | 24.9% | 20.1% | 45.1% |
| total | 64.6% | 35.4% | 100.0% |
Comparison of the Crowd to other forecasts
Spread wager forecasts
| source | crowd | hot hand | contest lead | computer model | crowd by wager | analyst |
| The Crowd’s Line | CLE +6.0 | CLE +6.0 | – | |||
| SportsLine | GS -6.0 | GS -6.0 | GS -6.0 | |||
| ESPN | -, GS -6.0 | GS -6.0 | ||||
| Covers | GS -6.0 | CLE +6.0 | GS -6.0 | |||
| Vegas Insider | GS -6.0 | |||||
| OddsShark | CLE +6.0 | – | ||||
| YahooSports |
Total points wager forecasts
| source | crowd | hot hand | contest lead | computer model | crowd by wager | analyst |
| The Crowd’s Line | under 209.0 | Under 209.0 | – | |||
| SportsLine | Under 209 | Over 209.0 | Over 209.0 | |||
| ESPN | Under 209.0 | |||||
| Covers | Over 209.0 | – | Under 209.0 | |||
| Vegas Insider | Over 209.0 | |||||
| OddsShark | Under 209 | Over 209 | ||||
| YahooSports |
Moneyline wager forecasts
| source | crowd | hot hand | contest lead | computer model | crowd by wager | analyst |
| The Crowd’s Line | CLE +200 | |||||
| SportsLine | GS -250 | |||||
| ESPN | ||||||
| Covers | ||||||
| Vegas Insider | CLE +200 | |||||
| OddsShark | ||||||
| YahooSports | GS |
The Crowd’s Line: Equal weighting [ take the under, take CLE +6.0 ]
- spread line forecast: GS -3.6
- standard deviation of spread line: 8.6
- total points forecast: 205
Hot Hand [take to under, take CLE +6.0]
- Experts on CLE and GS ( top 10% spread pickers over last three games for the two teams )
- spread line forecast: GS -4.2
- standard deviation of spread line: 6.0
- total points forecast: 204.3
- expected value of $1 bet on CLE +6.0 is +$0.01
Contest Leaders
- This is the first game of the contest.
