On Sunday afternoon at 3:05 the (12-4) New England Patriots will be on the road to take on the (12-4) Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game.  “The Crowd” projects a final score of Patriots 28 – Broncos 22 with an over/under of 50.2.  The “Vegas Line” has final score of Patriots 24 – Broncos 21 with an over/under of 44.5.  The Patriots enter the game with the 3^rd best point differential in the NFL (+150).  The Broncos, by comparison, rank 9^th in point differential (+59).  The Patriots’ offense ranks 6^th in yards per game (374.4) and 3^rd in points scored (465).  They will be up against a Broncos defense that ranks 1^st in fewest yards allowed per game (283.1) and 4^th in fewest points allowed (296).

The Broncos’ offense ranks 16^th in yards per game (355.5) and 19^th in points scored (355).  They will square off with a Patriots defense that ranks 9^th in fewest yards allowed per game (339.4) and 10^th in fewest points allowed (315).  The Patriots are tied for 5^th in turnover margin (+7).  The Broncos (-4) rank near the bottom of the league in regards to turnover margin.  The Patriots have won 5 of their last 7 games against the Broncos.  The Broncos defeated the Patriots 30-24 in Denver earlier this season.  New England was missing several key starters on offense for that game.  I think Denver’s strong defense will keep this game close but I don’t think their offense will score enough points to keep up with New England.  The Patriots move on and play in yet another Super Bowl under Bill Belichick.

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