Predict the Closing Price: Top 10 Closest Predictors Win an Amazon Gift Card! ($500 in Prizes!)
Predictions are due by 5PM ET on Wednesday, April 18, 2018
PRIZES:
1st Place: $200 Amazon gift card
2nd Place: $75 Amazon gift card
3rd Place: $50 Amazon gift card
4th-10th Place: $25 Amazon gift card
If there are ties, a random drawing will determine the winner.
BITCOIN PRICE OUTPACING THE CROWD’S PREDICTION
FRIDAY, APRIL 20TH as of 8AM EST
SUMMARY OF THE CROWD’S LINE FAIR VALUE FOR BITCOIN vs. LAST PRICE
HOW TO USE THE CROWD’S FAIR VALUE PREDICTION FORECAST:
The summary of the Crowd’s Fair Value vs. Last Price uses the data collected, by crowd sourcing data predictions, to create a tool to identify a valuation difference in the marketplace.
EXPLANATION OF THE PREMIUM/DISCOUNT SIGNALS:
DISCOUNT SIGNAL: Occurs when The Crowd’s prediction is a higher price vs. last price of the cryptocurrency.
PREMIUM SIGNAL: Occurs when The Crowd’s prediction is a lower price vs. last price of the cryptocurrency.
TODAY’S CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS HEADLINES
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BITCOIN PRICE OUTPACING THE CROWD’S PREDICTION: This week’s Bitcoin price prediction challenge will be decided today at 5PM. Again, the winning prediction is judged vs. the 5PM closing price sourced from Bloomberg.
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MARGINAL COST: Morgan Stanley analysts are estimating that the marginal cost of mining a bitcoin is $8,600. This compares to Fundstrat estimate last month that the break-even was at $8,038. The exact methodology for the prediction was not revealed. However, the Morgan Stanley did highlighted that “mining” cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin involves heavy-duty number-crunching and, therefore, requires costly computers and a lot of electricity. Economics 101 seems to suggest that the near term floor in Bitcoin is $8,600. This supports the view the recent headwinds of ASIC presented to all cryptocurrencies is only valid for ethereum based cryptocurrencies and not Bitcoin.
8AM CRYPTOCURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY
THE CROWD’S LINE LAUNCHES NEW PRICE PREDICTION CHALLENGE FOR APRIL 20TH 5PM CLOSE
TUESDAY, APRIL 17TH as of 8AM EST
SUMMARY OF THE CROWD’S LINE FAIR VALUE FOR BITCOIN vs. LAST PRICE
HOW TO USE THE CROWD’S FAIR VALUE PREDICTION FORECAST:
The summary of the Crowd’s Fair Value vs. Last Price uses the data collected, by crowd sourcing data predictions, to create a tool to identify a valuation difference in the marketplace.
EXPLANATION OF THE PREMIUM/DISCOUNT SIGNALS:
DISCOUNT SIGNAL: Occurs when The Crowd’s prediction is a higher price vs. last price of the cryptocurrency.
PREMIUM SIGNAL: Occurs when The Crowd’s prediction is a lower price vs. last price of the cryptocurrency.
TODAY’S CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS HEADLINES
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TODAY IS TAX DAY: Today is the last day you can file your 2017 taxes without incurring a penalty unless granted a waiver. Importantly, now that Uncle Sam has been paid, the perceived overhang on the crypto marketplace may finally be removed. As has been highlighting in this blog in the past, there is a view that many crypto traders created several taxable events. As a consequence, crypto currencies may have been under pressure as investors were forced to liquidate positions in order to pay for their tax obligations.
8AM CRYPTOCURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY
THE CROWD’S LINE LAUNCHES NEW PRICE PREDICTION CHALLENGE FOR APRIL 20TH 5PM CLOSE
MONDAY, APRIL 16TH as of 8AM EST
SUMMARY OF THE CROWD’S LINE FAIR VALUE FOR BITCOIN vs. LAST PRICE
HOW TO USE THE CROWD’S FAIR VALUE PREDICTION FORECAST:
The summary of the Crowd’s Fair Value vs. Last Price uses the data collected, by crowd sourcing data predictions, to create a tool to identify a valuation difference in the marketplace.
EXPLANATION OF THE PREMIUM/DISCOUNT SIGNALS:
DISCOUNT SIGNAL: Occurs when The Crowd’s prediction is a higher price vs. last price of the cryptocurrency.
PREMIUM SIGNAL: Occurs when The Crowd’s prediction is a lower price vs. last price of the cryptocurrency.
TODAY’S CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS HEADLINES
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TECHNICALS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGER BULLISH PATTERN: “The multi-month downtrend remains in place, but respecting the 2018 low point was a necessary first step in the repair process,” said Frank Cappelleri, executive director, institutional equities at Nomura Instinet. “This potential higher low could be a building block to the development of larger bullish pattern.”
8AM CRYPTOCURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY
THE CROWD’S LINE LAUNCHES NEW PRICE PREDICTION CHALLENGE FOR APRIL 20TH 5PM CLOSE
SUNDAY, APRIL 15TH as of 8AM EST
SUMMARY OF THE CROWD’S LINE FAIR VALUE FOR BITCOIN vs. LAST PRICE
HOW TO USE THE CROWD’S FAIR VALUE PREDICTION FORECAST:
The summary of the Crowd’s Fair Value vs. Last Price uses the data collected, by crowd sourcing data predictions, to create a tool to identify a valuation difference in the marketplace.
EXPLANATION OF THE PREMIUM/DISCOUNT SIGNALS:
DISCOUNT SIGNAL: Occurs when The Crowd’s prediction is a higher price vs. last price of the cryptocurrency.
PREMIUM SIGNAL: Occurs when The Crowd’s prediction is a lower price vs. last price of the cryptocurrency.
*** WHAT HAS BEEN MOVING BITCOIN THIS WEEK ***
FundStrat analyst Thomas Lee presented at the CMT Symposium in New York City, on April 12. He outlined 4 reasons why Bitcoin/blockchain resonates with adopters.
1. TRUST: Trust with major centralized institution has eroded in the past decade.
2. MILLENNIALS: The size of the Millennial generation, which is nearly 92 million people, has expressed a strong interest in Cryptocurrencies.
3. DISRUPTION: Financial industry growth in managing payments invites disruptive technology.
4. WALL STREET: Cryptocurrencies will represent a new asset class and likely replace other stores of value.
TODAY’S CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS HEADLINES
- BITCOIN PRICE SURGES: A spike of nearly 20% in the price of bitcoin of nearly this week is getting traders’ attention. Interestingly, the violent price move higher doesn’t seem driven by any specific news. The bear case for cryptocurrencies which specifically challenge Bitcoin’s legitimacy has weighed on the crypto currency marketplace since the start of the year. As recent as last Monday, global financial giant Barclay’s issued a research report making the bold prediction that Bitcoin will never hit another record. As for the bulls, there have been growing concerns that tax-related selling may act as a headwind into the April 17th tax deadline. Following a near 1,400% price appreciation in 2017, there are likely triggered several taxable events. Once Uncle Sam is made whole, the perceived overhang on the crypto marketplace may finally be removed.
8AM CRYPTOCURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY
THE CROWD’S LINE LAUNCHES NEW PRICE PREDICTION CHALLENGE FOR APRIL 20TH 5PM CLOSE
SATURDAY, APRIL 14TH as of 8AM EST
SUMMARY OF THE CROWD’S LINE FAIR VALUE FOR BITCOIN vs. LAST PRICE
HOW TO USE THE CROWD’S FAIR VALUE PREDICTION FORECAST:
The summary of the Crowd’s Fair Value vs. Last Price uses the data collected, by crowd sourcing data predictions, to create a tool to identify a valuation difference in the marketplace.
EXPLANATION OF THE PREMIUM/DISCOUNT SIGNALS:
DISCOUNT SIGNAL: Occurs when The Crowd’s prediction is a higher price vs. last price of the cryptocurrency.
PREMIUM SIGNAL: Occurs when The Crowd’s prediction is a lower price vs. last price of the cryptocurrency.
TODAY’S CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS HEADLINES
- WAVE OF NEW SIGN UPS UNDERSCORES DEMAND FOR ACCESS TO CRYPTOCURRENCY TRADING: The decline in the price of a basket of cryptocurrencies has led many market observers to conclude that the Bitcoin craze was the modern day version of Tulip Mania. Many of these skeptics were emboldened by the price decline and subsequently made predictions that Bitcoin would follow a dramatic collapse as its floral equivalent. In contrast to these forecasts, the price of Bitcoin surged last week leaving many searching for a reason. Many investors cited that catalysts such as easing of tax related selling, a short squeeze in the futures market and an escalation in geopolitical tensions were all contributing factors for the move higher. The other view less shared by main stream financial news services for the price rally was U.S. cryptocurrency exchange Bittrex re-opened is new user registration. The new account demand overwhelmed Bittrex’s capacity and it was forced to shut-down. Let this be a warning to cryptocurrency pessimists, the Bitcoin craze may not be over, but on the other hand just beginning.
8AM CRYPTOCURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY
THE CROWD’S LINE LAUNCHES NEW PRICE PREDICTION CHALLENGE FOR APRIL 20TH 5PM CLOSE
THURSDAY, APRIL 12TH as of 8:12AM EST
SUMMARY OF THE CROWD’S LINE FAIR VALUE FOR BITCOIN vs. LAST PRICE
HOW TO USE THE CROWD’S FAIR VALUE PREDICTION FORECAST:
The summary of the Crowd’s Fair Value vs. Last Price uses the data collected, by crowd sourcing data predictions, to create a tool to identify a valuation difference in the marketplace.
EXPLANATION OF THE PREMIUM/DISCOUNT SIGNALS:
DISCOUNT SIGNAL: Occurs when The Crowd’s prediction is a higher price vs. last price of the cryptocurrency.
PREMIUM SIGNAL: Occurs when The Crowd’s prediction is a lower price vs. last price of the cryptocurrency.
TODAY’S CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS HEADLINES
- IS BITCOIN EXPERIENCING FOMO? Bitcoin surged more than 5% in early morning trading. Importantly for momentum type traders and investors Bitcoin is crossed the $8,000 level. The recent surge in price has helped to rekindle the investments world interest in the digital currency. While there have been several catalysts highlighted for the move, including tax loss selling alleviating and a possible short squeeze in the bitcoin futures, it seems that the most move strong move can at the very least be explained by the “fear of missing out”.
- CRYPTO LEADER TRYING TO BECOME MORE RULE BASED: According to reports from the Bitcoin news website, the crypto-exchanger Coinbase requested the SEC to license the brokerage services. The cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase appealed to regulators to obtain a license for the provision of services as a brokerage company. This appears to be a proactive step towards adding rules to crypto brokering marketplace and more importantly a legitimate alternative asset.
8AM CRYPTOCURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY