Editorial by Graydon Fox

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Top 5 winners

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Overview:

On Friday, March 16^th, the (20-11) Florida State Seminoles will take on the (20-12) Missouri Tigers in the first round of the 2018 NCAA Basketball Tournament.

The Crowd:

“The Crowd” projects a final score of Florida State 72.5 – Missouri 71.5 with an over/under of 143.9.

Statistics (2017-18 season):

Point differential: Florida State +7.2 > Missouri +5.2 PPG

Points per game: Florida State 81.7 PPG > Missouri 73.3 PPG

Points allowed per game: Missouri 68.1 PPG > Florida State 74.5 PPG

Field Goal Percentage Offense: Florida State 47.4% > Missouri 45.3%

Field Goal Percentage Defense: Missouri 40.7% > Florida State 42.1%

Three Point Percentage: Missouri 38.1% > Florida State 35.1%

Turnovers per game: Florida State 13.0 > Missouri 14.1

Rebounds per game: Florida State 38.0 > Missouri 37.0

Assists per game: Florida State 15.3 > Missouri 13.6

Summary:

Missouri finished the season on a rough note losing four of their last six games.  The Tigers had the play all season without the number two recruit in the nation Michael Porter Jr. who missed the whole season with a back injury.  Porter Jr. finally returned in the SEC Tournament against Georgia scoring 12 points on just 5-17 shooting and grabbing 8 rebounds.  He looked extremely rusty but another week of rest could make a huge difference.  As for the rest of the roster, Kassius Robinson (16.2 PPG) and Jordan Barnett (13.7 PPG) led the team in scoring.  Each player is a dangerous threat from the perimeter eclipsing 40% from three.  Jontay Porter (10.1 PPG and 6.8 RPG) can score and also protect the rim (1.7 BPG).

Florida State struggled down the stretch going (4-6) in their final ten games to close out the season.  The Seminoles ranked 31^st in scoring offense (81.7 PPG) with their well-balanced attack.  Terrance Mann (13.2 PPG and 5.7 RPG) led the team in scoring and shot 56.1% from the field.  Both Phil Cofer (13.1 PPG) and Braian Angola (12.9 PPG) averaged double digit points.  Florida State is one of the deepest teams in the tournament with eight players averaging at least seven points.  The Seminoles are not the strongest defensive team and don’t shoot the three particularly well (35.1%).

Bottom Line:

The health of Michael Porter Jr. is certainly the X-factor in this game because his scoring prowess could elevate Missouri into a dangerous sleeper team.  Missouri was (3-2) against ranked opponents this season while Florida State was (2-5).  Missouri is the better defensive team and shoots the ball better than Florida State.  If this is a close game, Florida State struggles at the free throw line (68.5%) compared to Missouri (73.6%).  I’m going against “The Crowd” and picking Missouri to win and advance.

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