Prizing:

1st Place: $50 Amazon gift card

2nd-5th Place: $10 Starbucks gift card

Overview:

On Tuesday, December 20th, at 7:00 P.M. the Memphis Tigers will take on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in the Boca Raton Bowl.

The Crowd:

“The Crowd” projects a final score of Memphis 33.2 – Western Kentucky 30.2 with an over/under of 63.4.  The Vegas Line has a final score of Memphis 42.0 – Western Kentucky 37.0 with an over/under of 79.0.

2016-17 Statistics (127 total teams):

Passing offense: Western Kentucky 336.8 YPG > Memphis 294.9 YPG

Rushing offense: Western Kentucky 180.5 YPG > Memphis 166.5 YPG

Scoring offense: Western Kentucky 45.1 PPG > Memphis 39.5

Scoring defense: Western Kentucky 24.1 PPG > Memphis 27.0 PPG

Passing defense: Memphis 242.5 YPG > Western Kentucky 242.5 YPG

Rushing defense: Western Kentucky 99.1 > Memphis 200.2 YPG

Turnover Margin Per Game: Memphis +1.1 > Western Kentucky -0.1

Strength of schedule:

Western Kentucky is (10-3) with wins over Rice, Miami (OH), Houston Baptist, Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Florida Atlantic, FIU, North Texas, Marshall, and Louisiana Tech.  They were defeated by Alabama, Vanderbilt, and Louisiana Tech.  Memphis is (8-4) with wins over Southeast Missouri State, Kansas, Bowling Green, Temple, Tulane, SMU, Cincinnati, and Houston.  They lost to Ole Miss, Navy, Tulsa, and South Florida.

Summary:

Western Kentucky was second in the nation behind Louisville in points per game (45.1).  Hilltoppers quarterback Mike White threw for over 4,000 yards and 34 touchdowns this year.  Western Kentucky has no shortage of offensive weapons with wide receiver Taywan Taylor (1,586 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns) and running back Anthony Wales (1,376 receiving yards and 26 touchdowns).  They should have no problem putting up points against a weak Memphis defense.  Western Kentucky is in the midst of a coaching change after Jeff Brohm left to take on the Purdue job. The Hilltoppers put up some impressive offensive numbers but the quality of competition was very weak.

Memphis has a solid quarterback in Riley Ferguson who threw for 3,326 yards and 28 touchdowns this year.  Western Kentucky can really stuff the run but their pass defense was among the worst in college football.  I expect this game to be a shootout and I would lean towards over the 63.4 total points “The Crowd” is currently projecting.  Memphis ranks as a top five team in turnover margin so that could make all the difference in what is expected to be a close game.

**LISTEN HERE** to the latest edition of “The Berger Shop” podcast, sponsored by The Crowd’s Line.  This week’s episode features an in-depth discussion about the return of Tiger Woods with golf pro Jason Birnbaum.

Note:

To be eligible to enter a Crowd’s Line contest you must be over 18 years of age, a resident of the United States/Canada, and submit your score prediction on our prediction tool (blog widget). The winner will be selected according to The Crowd’s Line scoring methodology.  If more than one entrant has the same winning score the winner will be selected by random drawing.  Only one prize will be awarded per contest and that winner will receive their prize in 5-7 business days.