NBA Finals

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors, 9:00pm ET on ABC

Golden State leads the series 3-1.

Draymond Green is getting ready to storm the court.

 Over 70% of the Crowd think that Golden State will end the series tonight and repeat as NBA champs.  Draymond Green will be watching in an undisclosed remote location where other attendees will be issued commemorative “NBA Finals ‘16” protective cups as they enter the door.

The Vegas lines keep getting sharper and the Crowd really does not see much value in either the spread or moneyline tonight.  Even though the over/under line has been creeping down each game, the Crowd thinks you should still take the under if you absolutely can’t watch a basketball game without having some kind of action on it.

Good luck tonight!

Spread, Total and Moneyline Crowd sentiment

Bookmaker prices versus Crowd sentiment.

	bookmakers ( 4:00pm ET )		What the Crowd is saying?
	CLE	GS
spread	+6.0	-6.0	no value	–
moneyline	+180	-220	no value	–
total	207.0		under	weak  ( 29.9% )

Crowd sentiment going into tonight’s game across all wagers.

	under 207.0	over 207.0	total
CLE wins	20.6%	8.2%	28.7%
GS by < 6.0	13.6%	3.4%	17.0%
GS by > 6.0	33.5%	20.7%	54.2%
total	67.6%	32.4%	100.0%

Line comparisons from around the web

 Spread wager forecasts

source	crowd	hot hand	contest lead	computer model	crowd by wager	analyst
The Crowd’s Line	CLE +6.0	GS -6.0	GS -6.0
SportsLine	CLE +6.0			GS -6.0	GS -6.0
ESPN				CLE +6.0, CLE +6.0	GS -6.0
Covers
Vegas Insider					GS -6.0
OddsShark				CLE +6.0	GS -6.0
YahooSports

 Total points wager forecasts

source	crowd	hot hand	contest lead	computer model	crowd by wager	analyst
The Crowd’s Line	under 206.0	under 206.0	under 206.0
SportsLine	under 206			over 206.0	under 206.0
ESPN				Under 206.0
Covers
Vegas Insider					over 206.0
OddsShark				Under 206	over 206
YahooSports

 Moneyline wager forecasts

source	crowd	hot hand	contest lead	computer model	crowd by wager	analyst
The Crowd’s Line	no value
SportsLine				GS -220
ESPN
Covers
Vegas Insider					CLE
OddsShark
YahooSports	GS

 Forecast Details

 The Crowd’s Line: Equal weighting [ take the under, take CLE +6.0 ]

• crowd size:  1,196 predictions
• spread line forecast: GS -5.8
• standard deviation of spread line: 10.2
• total points forecast: 202.7
• expected value of $1 bet on GS -6.0 spread is $0.035

preferred wager for maximum expected value: Take the under for expected payoff on $1 wager of $0.34 and an estimated Sharpe ratio of 0.47.

preferred combo wager for maximum estimated Sharpe ratio:

same as simple, take the under

Hot Hand [take to under, take GS -6.0]

• Experts on CLE and GS ( top 10% spread pickers over last three games for the two teams )
• crowd size:  72 predictions
• spread line forecast: GS -9.1
• standard deviation of spread line: 11.1
• total points forecast: 205.0
• expected value of $1 bet on GS -6.0 is +$0.27

Contest Leaders [take to under, take GS -6.0]

• Leaders in the NBA Finals contest.
• crowd size:  5 predictions
• spread line forecast: GS -14.4
• standard deviation of spread line: 8.1
• total points forecast: 199.2
• expected value of $1 bet on GS -6.0 is +$0.34

SportsLine  [ model: GS-6, over, GS ML, public money: GS -6.0, over, journalist: CLE+6 ]

• Computer simulation projected final spread: GS -9,  take GS-6.0
• Computer simulation projected final total: 209, or take the over.
• Computer simulation projected moneyline: take GS
• Public Wager Side: 63% take GS 66% take the over.
• Journalist pick ( Zack Cimini ): CLE +6.0, .

Rational: “I expect the Cavaliers to clean up the second-half miscues witnessed in Game 4 and get back to what was seen in the prior six quarters.”

http://www.sportsline.com/nba/game-forecast/NBA_20160613_CLE@GS/

SportsLine Crowdsourcing with The Crowd’s Line tool:  Warriors by 4.6,    take the under.

ESPN:  [ both models take CLE+6.0 and under. Crowdsource spread by wager side: GS -6.0. ]

• Team Rankings: GS-4.3, total = 205.9:  take CLE+6.0, under.
• Number Fire: GS -5.1, total = 203.1:  take CLE +6.0 and under.
• Public consensus pick: 58% take GS and lay the points.

Vegas Insider:  [ GS -6.0, over, CLE moneyline  ]

• Where is the public offshore money? 69% over, 67% GS-6.0, 72% CLE moneyline

Odds Shark: [ Wagers say GS -6.0 and over, computer simulation says to take CLE +6.0 and the under. ]

• sports book money consensus: 58% take GS -6.0, 54% take the over 206
• computer simulation: CLE +6.0, take under 206.0

Yahoo Sports:  [ Crowd, 73% think GS will win. ]

• 73% of crowd says GS will win.
• Crowd size: 29,252 picks

How did the Crowd do last time? 

The Crowd heavily favored the under at 207.0 on Game.  Total came in at the Crowd’s favor, 205.0!