Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder: Game Six – What is “The Crowd” Saying?
May 22, 2016; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) dribbles as Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson (11) defends during the first quarter in game three of the Western conference finals of the NBA Playoffs at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
Saturday, May 28, 2016
Don’t ever underestimate the heart of a champion. Even if they are facing Westbrook in the Thunderdome.
NBA Western Conference Finals
Golden State Warriors @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:00pm ET on TNT
OKC leads the series 3-2
Simple forecast: take the under.
Tonight:
The Crowd thinks that OKC will close out the series in a close game. They also think there is value on the under wager tonight. The spread money is on OKC.
Finishing anything in life is hard. Becoming a champion in one of the most visible highly-paid competitions in the world takes freakishly incredible skill and determination. Unless there really is a serious injury that GS Warriors are waiting until end of the year to reveal, I think it is going to be tough to close them out tonight.
The Warriors have spent all season as favorites. Sometimes it’s nice to be the underdog. It lets you do the unexpected.
Good luck tonight!
Bookmaker prices versus Crowd sentiment.
| bookmakers ( as of 9:30am ET ) | What the Crowd is saying? | |||
| GS | OKC | |||
| Spread | +3.0 | -3.0 | GS +3.0 | weak (51.5%) |
| Moneyline | +135 | -155 | GS | medium ($0.06/$1 ) |
| Total | 220.0 | under | strong ( 76.1% ) | |
Breakdown of the Crowd sentiment going into tonight’s game across all wagers.
| under 220.0 points | over 220.0 points | total | |
| GS wins | 38.7% | 6.6% | 45.2% |
| OKC wins by less than 3.0 points | 5.2% | 1.0% | 6.2% |
| OKC wins by more than 3.0 points | 32.1% | 8.2% | 40.3% |
| total | 76.1% | 15.7% | 91.8% |
The daily combo: same as the simple – take the under.
The Crowd’s Line: Equal weighting [ take the under, take GS and the points ]
- spread line: OKC -0.50
- standard deviation of spread line: 10.0
- expected value of $1 bet on GS +3.0 spread is $0.05
Hot Hand [take GS and the points ]
- Experts on OKC and GS ( top 10% spread pickers over last three games for the two teams )
- spread line: OKC -0.15
- standard deviation of spread line: 8.5
- expected value of $1 bet: -$0.02 ( bad move )
Contest Leaders [ take OKC and give the points.]
- Leaders of The Crowd’s Line OKC vs GS series contest.
- spread line: OKC -3.8
- standard deviation of spread line: 6.5
- expected value of $1 bet: $0.11
Spread bet signals from The Crowd’s Line and around the net.
| source | crowd | Hot hand | Contest lead | Computer model | Crowd by Wager | Analyst |
| The Crowd’s Line | GS +3.0 | GS +3.0 | OKC +3.0 | |||
| SportsLine | GS +3.0 | |||||
| ESPN | GS, GS +3.0 | OKC-3.0 | ||||
| Covers | OKC -3.0 | OKC -3.0 | OKC -3.0 | |||
| Vegas Insider | OKC -3.0 | |||||
| OddsShark | OKC -3.0 | OKC -3.0 | OKC -3.0 | |||
| YahooSports | OKC to win |
