Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Golden State Warriors: Game Three – What is “The Crowd” Saying?
By: Chris Higginson
Jan 16, 2015; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) dunks the ball against the Golden State Warriors during the fourth quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
Golden State (1) @ Oklahoma City (1), Game 3
Las Vegas: Golden State -3.5
My pick: take OKC and the points.
For the Cleveland game we ignored all of the models and our own equal weighted crowd and followed the money to Cleveland to beat the spread. This time, we ignoring the offshore money and following our biggest crowd and the models to take OKC.
The Crowd’s Line
- Equal weighting [ take Oklahoma and the points ]
- spread line: Golden State -2.3
- standard deviation of spread line: 9.1
- expected value of $1 bet on OKC is $.01
Hot Hand [ take Oklahoma and the points ]
- Experts on Golden State and Oklahoma City ( top 10% spread pickers over last three games for the two teams )
- spread line: Golden State -2.1
- standard deviation of spread line: 11.3
- expected value of $1 bet: -$0.01 ( negative; bad. Some people who have been doing well think Golden State might win by more than 10. )
Contest Leaders [ take Golden State and give the points ]
- Leaders of The Crowd’s Line Golden State v Oklahoma City series contest.
- spread line: Golden State -6.0
- standard deviation of spread line: 11.8
- expected value of $1 bet: $.27
