Bottom Line: The Crowd along with experts within “The Crowd” believe that opportunity for this game is to take Golden State and give the points (-7.5).

Opportunity: OKC is coming off a great series versus the Spurs so they might be a little gassed relative to a rested GS.  If GS jumps out to a lead OKC may pack it in and take on the “lose the battle win the war” mentality.  GS are (7-3) in their last ten games head to head with OKC including (3-0) this season.

Caveats:

• Russell Westbrook and OKC are playing possessed and better than they have all season
• GSW is a little banged up (Green – ankle, Curry – knee and ankle) although they both played well in their series against Portland
• OKC was leading going into the 4th Quarter in each of the three matchups this year – OKC lost them all but had a shot

Betting odds: OKC @ Golden State

• Las Vegas: GS -7.5
• Equal weighting
• Crowd: GS (-7.8) [ decrease a point over the last two days ]
• Std spread: 6.5 ( not very confident )
• Expected value of $1 bet: $.05 ( not very high )

Hot Hand

• Experts on GS and OKC ( top 10% rmse spread pickers over last three games )
• GS -9.2, 13 predictions [ increased 1.5 points in last two days ]
• Std spread: 7.9
• Expected value of $1 bet: $0.16