EDITORIAL BY GRAYDON FOX

Overview:

On Saturday, December 29^th, the (12-1) Oklahoma Sooners will take on the (13-0) Alabama Crimson Tide in the Capital One Orange Bowl.

The Crowd:

The Crowd projects a final score of Alabama 40.4 – Oklahoma 31.1 with an over/under of 71.5.

Lou Holtz and Mark May:

Lou is predicting a final score of Alabama 54 – Oklahoma 27.

Mark is predicting a final score of Alabama 48 – Oklahoma 34.

2018-19 Statistics (130 total teams):

Passing offense: Alabama 325.5 YPG (7^th) > Oklahoma 324.0 YPG (8^th)

Rushing offense: Oklahoma 253.9 YPG (11^th) > Alabama 202.2 YPG (37^th)

Scoring offense: Oklahoma 49.5 PPG (1^st) > Alabama 47.9 PPG (2^nd)

Scoring defense: Alabama 14.8 PPG (4^th) > Oklahoma 32.4 PPG (96^th)

Passing defense: Alabama 178.4 (13^th) > Oklahoma 291.4 YPG (129^th)

Rushing defense: Alabama 117.0 YPG (19^th) > Oklahoma 156.7 YPG (53^rd)

Turnover Margin Per Game: Alabama +0.8 (12^th) > Oklahoma -0.2 (79^th)

Strength of Schedule:

Oklahoma is (12-1) with victories over Florida Atlantic, UCLA, Iowa State, Army, Baylor, TCU, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas, #13 West Virginia, and #14 Texas.  Their lone defeat was a home loss to #19 Texas in week six.

Alabama is a perfect (13-0) with wins over Oregon State, Rutgers, #15 TCU, Tulane, #9 Penn State, Indiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, #18 Michigan State, Maryland, #4 Michigan, and #21 Northwestern.  Their lone defeat was in week eight at Purdue.

Betting Trends: 

– Oklahoma is 5-7-1 against the spread this season while Alabama is 8-5.

– Oklahoma is 11-2 against the over/under this season whereas Alabama is 8-6.

Bottom Line

The health of Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is in question after he suffered an ankle injury in the win over Georgia.  When healthy, Tagovailoa guided an offense that won their first 12 games by 20 or more points.  Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray, fresh of winning the Heisman Trophy, led the nation’s highest scoring offense.  Murray, equally dangerous as a passer and a runner, should be able to put up numbers even against a great Alabama defense.  Defensively, Oklahoma has been poor, allowing four of their last five opponents to score over 40 points.  Alabama Head Coach Nick Saban says Tagovailoa is healthy and he should shred an Oklahoma defense that is the second worst in the nation at defending the pass.

Alabama wins 42-34

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