EDITORIAL BY GRAYDON FOX

Overview:

On Saturday, December 22^nd, the (10-2) Army Black Knights will take on the (8-4) Houston Cougars in the Armed Forces Bowl.

The Crowd:

The Crowd projects a final score of Army 30.0 – Houston 27.3 with an over/under of 57.3.

Lou Holtz and Mark May:

Lou is predicting a final score of Army 31 – Houston 14.

Mark is predicting a final score of Army 26 – Houston 24.

2018-19 Statistics (130 total teams):

Passing offense: Houston 300.9 YPG (14^th) > Army 79.7 YPG (128^th)

Rushing offense: Army 296.3 YPG (2^nd) > Houston 227.7 YPG (19^th)

Scoring offense: Houston 46.4 PPG (4^th) > Army 29.7 PPG (60^th)

Scoring defense: Army 18.0 PPG (13^th) > Houston 34.4 PPG (107^th)

Passing defense: Army 185.3 YPG (20^th) > Houston 291.4 YPG (130^th)

Rushing defense: Army 108.2 YPG (12^th) > Houston 197.5 YPG (98^th)

Turnover Margin Per Game: Army +1.0 (6^th) > Houston +0.5 (32^nd)

Strength of Schedule:

Army is (10-2) with victories over Liberty, Hawaii, Buffalo, San Jose State, Miami (OH), Eastern Michigan, Air Force, Lafayette, Colgate, and Navy.  They were defeated by Duke and #5 Oklahoma.

Houston is (8-4) with wins over Rice, Arizona, Texas Southern, Tulsa, East Carolina, Navy, #21 South Florida, and Tulane.  They were defeated by Texas Tech, SMU, Memphis, and Temple.

Betting Trends: 

-Army is 7-4-1 against the spread this season while Houston is 5-7.

-Army is 6-6 against the over/under this season whereas Houston is 8-4.

Bottom Line

Army ended the season on an eight-game winning streak while Houston lost three of their last four games.  Houston’s defense has been abysmal down the stretch allowing over 30 points to the opposition in five of their last six games.  The Cougars best player, star defensive tackle Ed Oliver, will sit out as he prepares for the NFL Draft.  Army’s run heavy ball control style has had great success this season and they nearly pulled off an upset against then #5 Oklahoma.  Army will execute when it counts evidenced by their nation leading third down conversion rate (56%).

Army wins 31-28

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