EDITORIAL BY GRAYDON FOX

Overview:

On Saturday, December 1^st, the (10-2) Fresno State Bulldogs will take on the (10-2) Boise State Broncos in the Mountain West Championship Game.

The Crowd:

The Crowd projects a final score of Boise State 30.7 – Fresno State 25.3 with an over/under of 56.0.

Lou Holtz and Mark May:

Lou is predicting a final score of Boise State 27 – Fresno State 24.

Mark is predicting a final score of Boise State 33 – Fresno State 31.

2018-19 Statistics (130 total teams):

Passing offense: Boise State 305.9 YPG (13^th) > Fresno State 282.8 YPG (23^rd)

Rushing offense: Boise State 162.8 YPG (70^th) > Fresno State 148.6 (94^th)

Scoring offense: Boise State 37.0 PPG (19^th) > Fresno State 36.3 PPG (23^rd)

Scoring defense: Fresno State 13.5 PPG (2^nd) > Boise State 22.3 PPG (36^th)

Passing defense: Fresno State 199.8 YPG (37^th) > Boise State 238.3 YPG (80^th)

Rushing defense: Fresno State 121.8 YPG (20^th) > Boise State 123.3 YPG (24^th)

Turnover Margin Per Game: Boise State +0.8 (8^th) > Fresno State +0.6 (18^th)

Strength of Schedule:

Fresno State is (10-2) with victories over Idaho, UCLA, Toledo, Nevada, Wyoming, New Mexico, Hawaii, UNLV, San Diego State, and San Jose State.  They were defeated by Minnesota and Boise State.

Boise State is (10-2) with victories over Troy, UConn, Wyoming, Nevada, Colorado State, Air Force, BYU, #23 Fresno State, New Mexico, and #21 Utah State. They were defeated by #23 Oklahoma State and San Diego State.

Betting Trends: 

– Fresno State is 8-4 against the spread this season while Boise State is 7-4-1.

– Fresno State is 2-9-1 against the over/under this season whereas Boise State is 5-7.

Bottom Line

Boise State hosted Fresno State earlier this season and defeated them 24-17.  Alexander Mattison rushed for 144 yards and two scores in the victory.  I was expecting a shootout last time with two of the better quarterbacks in Brett Rypien and Marcus McMaryion squaring off but it was more of a defensive battle.  Boise State’s ability to run the football and grind out the tough yards when they need to will be the difference in this one.

Boise State wins 27-24

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