EDITORIAL BY GRAYDON FOX

Overview:

On Saturday, November 17^th, the (6-3) Iowa State Cyclones will be on the road to take on the (7-3) Texas Longhorns.

The Crowd:

The Crowd projects a final score of Texas 32.1 – Iowa State 25.7 with an over/under of 57.7.

Lou Holtz and Mark May:

Lou is predicting a final score of Texas 31 – Iowa State 24.

Mark is predicting a final score of Iowa State 27 – Texas 23.

2018-19 Statistics (130 total teams):

Passing offense: Texas 270.9 YPG > Iowa State 241.4 YPG

Rushing offense: Texas 155.5 YPG > Iowa State 128.8 YPG

Scoring offense: Texas 33.2 PPG > Iowa State 27.0 PPG

Scoring defense: Iowa State 20.4 PPG > Texas 27.5 PPG

Passing defense: Iowa State 235.0 YPG > Texas 276.2 YPG

Rushing defense: Iowa State 109.4 YPG > Texas 143.9 YPG

Turnover Margin Per Game: Texas +0.7 > Iowa State +0.3

Summary:

Iowa State is (6-3) with wins over Akron, #25 Oklahoma State, #6 West Virginia, Texas Tech, Kansas, and Baylor.  They were defeated by Iowa, #5 Oklahoma, and TCU.   After starting the season 1-3, Iowa State has won five straight games.  Iowa State was able to defeat Baylor 28-14 last week despite losing the yardage and time of possession battle.  The Cyclones rank 47^th in points per game (27.0) and 49^th in scoring defense (20.4 PPG).  Quarterback Brock Purdy has completed 68% of his passes for 1,315 yards with 13 touchdowns to 2 interceptions.  Running back David Montgomery has rushed for 765 yards and 6 touchdowns on the season.  Hakeem Butler leads the team in receiving with 816 yards and 8 touchdowns.  The Cyclones’ defense ranks 76^th against the pass (235.0 YPG) and 16^th against the run (109.4 YPG).

Texas is (7-3) with victories over Tulsa, #22 USC, #17 TCU, Kansas State, #7 Oklahoma, Baylor, and Texas Tech.  They were defeated by Maryland, Oklahoma State, and #13 West Virginia.  Texas was able to hang on in last week’s 41-34 shootout win over Texas Tech.  The Longhorns rank 37^th in points per game (33.2) and 67^th in scoring defense (27.5 PPG).  Quarterback Sam Ehlinger has completed 64% of his passes for 2,483 yards with 20 touchdowns to 2 interceptions.  Ehlinger is also a threat on the ground where he has recorded 9 rushing touchdowns.  Texas has two of the best receivers in the country in Lil’Jordan Humphrey (947 yards, 7 touchdowns) and Collin Johnson (675 yards, 5 touchdowns).  The Longhorns’ defense ranks 118^th against the pass (276.2 YPG) and 47^th against the run (143.9 YPG).  Texas has the 15^th best turnover margin (+0.7) in the country.

Bottom Line:

Texas has struggled on defense allowing 35.2 points per game over their last five.  After some early season struggles, Matt Campbell has his team on a roll having won five straight.  I don’t believe Iowa State has the personnel to take advantage of the holes in the Longhorns’ secondary.  With David Montgomery not at 100% I’m leaning towards Texas in a close one.

Texas wins 30-27

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