EDITORIAL BY GRAYDON FOX

Overview:

On Saturday, November 3^rd, the (8-0) Alabama Crimson Tide will be on the road to take on the (7-1) LSU Tigers.

The Crowd:

The Crowd projects a final score of Alabama 36.7 – LSU 24.2 with an over/under of 60.9.

Lou Holtz and Mark May:

Lou is predicting a final score of Alabama 38 – LSU 14.

Mark is predicting a final score of Alabama 40 – LSU 16.

2018-19 Statistics (130 total teams):

Passing offense: Alabama 347.4 YPG > LSU 193.0 YPG

Rushing offense: Alabama 216.9 YPG > LSU 190.6 YPG

Scoring offense: Alabama 54.1 PPG > LSU 30.4 PPG

Scoring defense: LSU 15.1 PPG > Alabama 15.9 PPG

Passing defense: Alabama 194.5 YPG > LSU 199.8 YPG

Rushing defense: Alabama 113.4 YPG > LSU 130.5 YPG

Turnover Margin Per Game: Alabama +1.4 > LSU +1.3

Summary:

Alabama is a perfect (8-0) with wins over Louisville, Arkansas State, Ole Miss, #22 Texas A&M, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, and Tennessee.  Alabama is coming off a nice road win where they put up 58 points against the Tennessee Volunteers.  The Crimson Tide rank 1^st in points per game (54.1) and 10^th in scoring defense (15.9 PPG).  Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa continues his Heisman campaign completing 70% of his passes for 2,066 yards with an absurd 25-0 touchdown to interception ratio.  The backfield duo of Najee Harris and Damian Harris have combined for 924 yards and 9 touchdowns.  Jerry Jeudy leads the team in receiving with 777 yards and 10 touchdowns but Alabama has five receivers with over 300 yards already.  The Crimson Tide defense ranks 33^rd against the pass (194.5 YPG) and 21^st against the run (113.4 YPG).  Alabama has the 4^th best turnover margin in the country (+1.4).

LSU is (7-1) with victories over #8 Miami (FL), Southeastern Louisiana, #7 Auburn, Louisiana Tech, Ole Miss, #2 Georgia, and #22 Mississippi State.  Their lone defeat was a 27-29 road loss to the #22 Florida Gators in week six.  LSU’s defense was phenomenal last week holding #22 Mississippi State to just 3 points.  The Tigers rank 61^st in points per game (30.4) and 7^th in scoring defense (15.1 PPG).  Quarterback Joe Burrow has completed 53% of his passes for 1,544 yards with 6 touchdowns to 3 interceptions.  Running back Nick Brossette leads the team with 697 yards and 10 touchdowns.  Backup tailback Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been a huge contributor with 521 yards and 5 touchdowns.  The Tigers’ defense ranks 38^th against the pass (199.8 YPG) and 32^nd against the run (130.5 YPG).  LSU ranks 6^th in turnover margin (+1.3).

Bottom Line:

Alabama has dominated this head to head match-up in recent years winning seven straight over LSU.  Nine of the last ten contests have been decided by 14 or fewer points.  Tua Tagovailoa is having a season for the ages and is on pace to break Baker Mayfield’s single season passing efficiency record.  I expect the typical low scoring tightly contested game between two teams with top ten defenses. Nick Brossette is one of the best backs in the country but Joe Burrow’s inability to make big plays in the passing game will be their downfall against Alabama.

Alabama wins 27-14

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