EDITORIAL BY GRAYDON FOX

Overview:

On Saturday, October 13^th, the (5-0) UCF Knights will be on the road to take on the (4-2) Memphis Tigers.

The Crowd:

The Crowd projects a final score of UCF 38.4 – Memphis 29.3 with an over/under of 67.7.

Lou Holtz and Mark May:

Lou is predicting a final score of UCF 42 – Memphis 24.

Mark is predicting a final score of UCF 42 – Memphis 35.

2018-19 Statistics (130 total teams):

Passing offense: UCF 305.0 YPG > Memphis 272.2 YPG

Rushing offense: Memphis 274.5 YPG > UCF 269.4 YPG

Scoring offense: UCF 48.6 PPG > Memphis 46.2 PPG

Scoring defense: UCF 17.4 PPG > Memphis 24.5 PPG

Passing defense: UCF 174.6 YPG > Memphis 176.3 YPG

Rushing defense: Memphis 172.3 YPG > UCF 181.8 YPG

Turnover Margin Per Game: UCF +1.8 > Memphis +0.6

Summary:

UCF is (5-0) to start the season with wins over UConn, South Carolina State, Florida Atlantic, Pittsburgh, and SMU.  The Knights rank 7^th in points per game (48.6) and 19^th in scoring defense (17.4 PPG).  Lou Holtz went as far as to say that UCF is one of his top ten teams in the country right now and quarterback McKenzie Milton deserves consideration for the Heisman Trophy.  Milton has completed 59% of his passes for 1,501 yards with 15 touchdowns to four interceptions.  Milton is also the team’s third leading rusher with 215 yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground.  Adrian Killins Jr. leads the team in rushing with 346 yards and 4 touchdowns.  UCF has two pass catchers in Gabriel Davis and Tre Nixon with over 300 yards receiving.  The Knights’ defense ranks 17^th against the pass (174.6 YPG) and 90^th against the run (181.8 YPG).  UCF ranks 3^rd in the nation in turnover margin (+1.8).

Memphis is (4-2) with victories over Mercer, Georgia State, South Alabama, and UConn.  They suffered two road losses at the hands of Navy and Tulane.  The Tigers rank 11^th in points per game (46.2) and 67^th in scoring defense (26.2 PPG).  Quarterback Brady White has completed 69% of his passes for 1,549 yards with 15 touchdowns to 1 interception.  Running back Darrell Henderson leads the nation in rushing yards (934) and has the second most touchdowns (12).  Henderson is averaging an insane 11.3 yards per carry and the main reason Memphis leads the nation in yards per rush (7.7 YPC).  Damonte Coxie is the team’s leading receiver with 466 yards to go along with his 4 touchdowns.  The Tigers’ defense ranks 21^st against the pass (176.2 YPG) and 81^st against the run (172.3 YPG).

Bottom Line:

I expect another close game as the last two meetings between these teams have been decided by just seven points.  It’s tempting to take Memphis and the points at home where they have won 12 of their last 13 games but UCF is something special this year.  Memphis had some duds against inferior competition and that makes me question how talented they truly are.  McKenzie Milton and his dual threat ability prove to be the difference in this shootout.

UCF wins 38-31

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